The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will reach unprecedented levels and average 102.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023,propelled by summer air travel, robust Chinese petrochemical activity, and increased petroleum use for power generation. According to the agency’s Oil Market Report (OMR) for August, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day this year, with China accounting for more than 70 percent of the increase.
China’s economy entered deflation in July for the first time in more than two years, as consumer prices fell. China produces a significant portion of the products sold worldwide. A prolonged period of deflation in the country may assist in preventing price increases in other regions of the world, including the United Kingdom. However, a deluge of low-priced Chinese products on international markets could have a negative effect on manufacturers in other nations. This could negatively impact business investment and employment. A period of declining prices in China may also have negative effects on corporate profits and consumer expenditure. It could lead to a decline in demand for energy, basic materials, and food in the world’s largest market, which would negatively impact global exports.
The most recent monthly inflation reading for the United States confirmed expectations for a second consecutive month of a moderate increase in the cost of living. Annualizing the monthly figures, the 0.2% increase in both the aggregate consumer price index and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, from June to July brought inflation close to 2%. The financial markets were decidedly gloomy. On Wall Street, equities gave up their early gains and ended the day largely unchanged. A 30-year bond auction that reminded investors of the surge in US government borrowing requirements derailed an early rally in Treasuries. Although the futures positioning suggests that policymakers will not raise interest rates again, players were not as eager to estimate rate cuts by the end of the year as they were earlier in the year. The likelihood of a gentle impact is increasing, but many banks remain skeptical.
The market scenario is characterized by a surge in buying interest, accompanied by a dearth in the availability of tonnage.
The market has experienced a negative trend over the past three days. However, there is a notable increase in buying interest from buyers at these reduced levels.
The availability of tonnage is currently limited, with a scarcity of vessels available for purchase and very few sales occurring in the international market.
In the context of this particular market, it can be asserted that the Buyers exhibit an apparent interest in these prevailing levels. However, it is imperative to acknowledge the inherent constraint of limited availability.
A large Capesize vessel was recently sold at a highly competitive and appealing price to a ship recycler locally.
14 August to 20 August 2023
28 August to 31 August 2023
01 September to 06 September 2023
The market exhibits a pessimistic sentiment coupled with
persistent and steadily intensifying LC issues.
The current state of the markets is characterized by a significant downturn, marked by a noticeable absence of purchasing activity and a prevailing sense of caution among market participants.
This apprehensive sentiment has led to a notable decline in the local market, with prices plummeting by approximately 40-50 dollars over the course of the past few days.Furthermore, as a result of the escalating foreign exchange rates, individuals are experiencing a significant level of discomfort when it comes to making purchases.
As previously recommended multiple times in our previous reports, we reiterate our utmost caution regarding engaging in business activities in Bangladesh.
It is worth noting that many vessels are presently awaiting in the outer anchorage due to issues related to LC and are consequently unable to proceed to the designated port. Moreover, the buyers are exhibiting a lack of performance. For a considerable duration, we have consistently articulated this assertion within our reports, which has now been substantiated as accurate.
16 August to 19 August 2023
30 August to 31 August 2023
01 September to 02 September 2023
Little notable improvement in the local market and demand for steel is dwindling.
The local market, as well as imports, have experienced a notable improvement of approximately 5-6 USD. However, it is important to note that there is a lack of substantial activity that would provide further support for continued progress.
The prices of ship recycling have shown steadiness despite the volatility seen in imported ferrous scrap. Although, it is important to note that Turkey continues to face a shortage of available tonnages.
However overall demand in Turkey is currently fatigued, mostly due to the limited business activity seen in both the local and export steel sectors.
Turkey has reached an agreement with the European Union to establish a road map that will enhance bilateral trade and economic relations in the coming period. This development is particularly significant as both parties are actively engaging in dialogue to mend their strained relationship.
Throughout the month
The current market conditions are fairly quiet, characterized by only a handful of buyers.
The market is currently in a state that is notably quiet. There are a total of 6 to 7 buyers who possess LC, of which two buyers have already been accounted for.
Currently, there are four to five ships available for delivery to Pakistan. Given the constraints imposed by a limited pool of potential buyers, it is evident that these purchasers are actively attempting to maximize their purchasing power within their respective LC fund limits.
Two vessels were acquired by recyclers at levels 520 and 524 USD. However, at these levels, it is not feasible, and these recyclers are purchasing in anticipation of further currency depreciation, as institutions are only opening just a few of LC.
The President of Pakistan has initiated the dissolution of the National Assembly, which serves as the lower house of parliament. This action marks Pakistan entering a new phase of political strain as speculation mounts about a three-month election.
Throughout the month