World’s leading cash buyers of ships, Best Oasis revealed that, India’s pricing situation continues to be underwhelming.
The current condition of the ship recycling industry is demonstrating a subdued sentiment. Despite India’s reputation as the most dependable destination in the sub-continent for matters concerning LCs and finance, the pricing situation continues to be underwhelming. The prevailing trend among buyers in Alang seems to include a cautious attitude, characterized by a careful observation of market trends. The demand for vessels in the Bangladeshi market is declining, and the challenges associated with obtaining LC and finance clearances are adding to the difficulties faced in the local market. Pakistan has shown a notable level of ability and drive to regain prominence in the marine sector, as demonstrated by the successful sale of a few vessels and the initiation of LCs. However, a comprehensive understanding of Pakistan’s market trajectory remains elusive and will only be fully discerned in the forthcoming months.
Contrary to the initial robust projection, the situation has progressively deteriorated for China’s economy, creating a rather bleak outlook. China’s decision to hold off the release of statistics on youth unemployment — a metric regarded by some as crucial for assessing the country’s deceleration — is a significant factor contributing to the complexity of the scenario. The People’s Bank of China lowered key interest rates for the second time within three months in a recent unexpected move aimed at intensifying monetary easing efforts to stimulate a sputtering economic recovery. In July, falling credit growth and rising deflation risks necessitated additional monetary easing measures to halt the economic decline. Four prominent financial institutions lowered their forecasts for China’s economic development for the year. Indicators such as retail sales, industrial output, and investment are underperforming expectations, further dimming the prognosis for China’s economic growth. This trajectory is attributable in part to subdued consumer demand, which has resulted in deflation in the second-largest economy in the globe.
Following Moody’s decision to lower the credit ratings of 10 small and medium-sized American banks, Fitch Ratings, another global rating agency, has issued a warning that it may also downgrade the ratings of numerous U.S. banks, including JP Morgan Chase. Concerns are increasing regarding the banking system of the economic superpower. However, this turmoil extends beyond banking and is not restricted to the United States. Economists have correctly stated that the strain on the U.S. financial system may result in tighter credit and a more pronounced global economic slowdown.
India – The market had a notable bounce towards the end of the week; nonetheless, the demand remains weak.
- There was a notable upturn in the market towards the conclusion of the week. However, the local demand for materials remains relatively subdued.
- It is worth noting that the market exhibits an increase in response to a shortage of materials. However, it is anticipated that once the vessel flow increases, the market will subsequently decline.
- Moody’s Investors Service has upheld the long-term local and foreign-currency sovereign ratings of India while maintaining a stable outlook. The long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings as well as the local-currency senior unsecured rating for India remain at BAA3, whereas the other short-term local-currency rating is P-3.
- S&P Global has also forecasted a growth trajectory for the Indian economy, with an anticipated average annual rate of 6.7% through March 2031. This growth is expected to be propelled by the export of manufacturing and services, as well as consumer demand.
Bangladesh – The current state of the market can be characterized as moderate, with identifiable signs of gradual decline.
- The current market conditions in this region can be described as average, with a gradual decline observed over time. The level of interest from buyers has significantly diminished, and their perspectives have become even more pessimistic than those of Indian buyers.
- The Bangladesh Ship Recycling Association (BSRA) has formally stated that the Inventory of Hazardous Materials (IHM) 1 is mandatory for all vessels arriving after August 31st. This requirement applies to Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) made subsequent to August 31st.
- As per the data provided by the Bangladesh Bank, the gross international reserve of Bangladesh, in accordance with the guidelines set forth by the International Monetary Fund, experienced a decline from $23.34 billion on July 31 to $23.14 billion on August 16.
Pakistan – The current state of the market is marked by a glaring absence of clarity.
- Uncertainty persists over the ship recycling sector in Pakistan. Although LC has been opened and there were 2 sales of vessels, recyclers are still holding out for prices to fall below $500. Additionally, the demand is sluggish here.
- The import of steel and scrap iron experienced a significant decline of 44 percent in FY23, indicating a notable deceleration in the construction and industrial sectors. This decline can be attributed to the persistent political and economic instability observed throughout the preceding fiscal year, the rise in international steel prices, the substantial devaluation of the Pakistani rupee, and the restrictions imposed by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on opening letters of credit. These factors have been exacerbated by the rapid depletion of foreign exchange reserves.
- The Pakistani currency experienced a depreciation of around 2% against the US dollar in both the interbank and open markets. This decline in value resulted in the currency closing at Rs 296 against the US dollar according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan.
Türkiye – There has been a significant rise in both import and local prices in this market.
- The market has experienced a notable increase of 12 USD in terms of import prices and a corresponding rise of 15 USD in local prices.
- The persistent issue in this particular region continues to be the scarcity of tonnage.
- The crude steel production in Turkiye experienced a decline of 19 percent, amounting to 13 million metric tons, during the period of January to May 2023, in comparison to the corresponding period in 2022. The decline can be attributed to the severe earthquake on February 6 of this year, which had a substantial impact on a significant portion of Southern Turkiye.
- The inflation outlook in Turkiye is deteriorating as a result of a weakened currency. According to a major survey conducted by the central bank of the country, analysts anticipate the most rapid projected price increases in over twenty years.