Iran-U.S. Tensions Raise Threat to Commercial Shipping: Bimco Warns of Escalating Risks in Arabian Waters
June 23, 2025
The world’s largest direct-membership shipping organisation has issued a grave warning that commercial shipping around the Arabian Peninsula is facing increasing danger in the wake of escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran. Following Saturday’s U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, global maritime security is under renewed threat, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea regions.
Bimco — the Baltic and International Maritime Council, which represents shipowners, charterers, shipbrokers, and agents across the globe, expressed concern over the rising risks. According to Jakob Larsen, Head of Security at Bimco, the immediate future remains uncertain, but the trajectory indicates heightened risks for commercial vessels, especially those affiliated with the United States and Israel.
“The Houthis now threaten merchant ships with affiliation to Israel or the U.S., but attacks against merchant ships with other affiliations cannot be ruled out,” Larsen stated.
The warning follows the recent spike in regional tensions after the U.S. launched a targeted strike on suspected nuclear infrastructure inside Iran, a move which Tehran has vowed to respond to. While Iran’s official retaliation is still awaited, multiple actors in the region, including Houthi rebels in Yemen, have already intensified threats to maritime operations.
Shipping Giants on High Alert
The potential fallout is already affecting commercial shipping operations. In an email to CNBC, a spokesperson from German shipping major Hapag-Lloyd confirmed that their ships are continuing to cross the Strait of Hormuz, albeit under increased security alert.
“We currently are still crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Alert level is high, though, and things might change by the hour,” the spokesperson said.
In parallel, Danish logistics giant Maersk announced on Friday that it would temporarily suspend port calls to Haifa, Israel’s largest container port, amid fears of missile strikes. The $4.2 billion facility, owned by India’s Adani Group, was reportedly targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles last week, although it suffered no damage.
Adani Group CFO Jugeshinder “Robbie” Singh swiftly debunked misinformation circulating on Iranian social media, which falsely claimed the port was ablaze. “There is no fire, no damage, and the port is operating normally,” Singh had clarified in a statement.
Strategic Chokepoint Under Threat
Perhaps the most critical concern is the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea. Often described as the world’s most vital oil chokepoint, the Strait facilitates the transport of nearly one-fifth of the globe’s petroleum liquids. In 2023, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an average daily oil flow of 20.9 million barrels through the Strait.
A disruption here, even temporary, could have profound global consequences — from oil price spikes and shipping delays to elevated insurance costs and broader supply chain instability.
Larsen warned that Iran could attempt a wider maritime disruption strategy, potentially deploying anti-ship missiles, drones, or even sea mines.
“The laying of sea mines would constitute another dangerous development, but Iran’s intent to do so is questionable due to the risk to Iran-affiliated commercial ships and the risk of environmental disaster in case a ship is damaged,” he said.
Naval Constraints and Protective Limitations
According to Larsen, the availability of U.S. and allied warships to protect commercial ships is likely constrained at the moment, particularly for vessels not affiliated with the U.S. or Israeli interests.
“Given the Iranian threat to U.S. military bases in the region, availability of warships for protection of commercial shipping is probably limited,” he noted.
While the Strait of Hormuz only accounts for less than 4% of global container trade, ports like Jebel Ali in the UAE and Khor Fakkan are critical to the functioning of global logistics networks. These ports serve as major transhipment hubs for cargo moving in and out of South Asia, East Africa, and beyond.
The ripple effects of conflict in this region are thus not limited to energy commodities — they touch all corners of the maritime and logistics industry.
Freight Rates Soar Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
As tensions have escalated, the financial impact is already manifesting in ocean freight markets.
Freight intelligence firm Xeneta reports that average spot rates for shipping from Shanghai to Jebel Ali have surged 55% month-over-month as of Friday. Rates now stand at $2,761 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), a standard measure of shipping capacity.
This marks a dramatic increase driven by growing concerns over the safety and reliability of shipping routes through the Gulf region.
The tanker market is witnessing even sharper volatility. Spot rates for Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) routes between the Middle East and China have jumped a staggering 154% week-over-week. Similarly, long-range tanker (LR2) rates on the Middle East-Japan corridor have climbed 148%, while very large gas carrier (VLGC) rates for the same route are up 33%.
A Fragile Shipping Environment
The dual threat of state-sponsored retaliation from Iran and asymmetric attacks by groups like the Houthis creates a multifaceted danger for commercial shipping in the Middle East. The unpredictability of drone and missile attacks, the possibility of sea mines, and the shortage of naval escorts for non-aligned merchant vessels all contribute to what analysts are calling the most fragile shipping environment in the region since the 1980s Iran-Iraq war.
As global trade heavily relies on the uninterrupted movement of goods through these waters, the stakes are immense. Shipping companies are now under pressure to reroute vessels, increase insurance coverage, and implement emergency preparedness protocols — all of which add operational costs and strain to an already complex global supply chain.
Larsen concluded by urging ship operators to maintain maximum vigilance and remain updated with evolving risk assessments in the region.
“The situation is dynamic. Commercial shipping must remain alert to the possibility of rapid changes in the security situation,” he said.
As the world watches how Iran will respond to the U.S. strikes, the commercial shipping industry braces for more turbulence. Whether it will be a protracted disruption or a short-term flare-up remains to be seen, but the message from Bimco is clear: risk levels are rising, and the maritime world must be prepared.
