The Red Sea Dilemma: China’s Unusual Stance on Maritime Security
Since December 2023, the Red Sea has become a dangerous zone for global shipping due to Houthi attacks on ships associated with Israel. This situation has forced major global shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea, opting for a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. In response, the United States and its allies initiated Operation Prosperity Guardian, with India deploying naval warships to protect cargo ships. Surprisingly, China, despite having a base in Djibouti, has refrained from participating in maritime security operations led by the US or launching its own independent naval operations. What might explain this unusual Chinese behavior?
China’s Economic Expansion in the Middle East
As the US withdrew from the Middle East, China expanded its economic and strategic presence, becoming a significant partner for Middle Eastern economies. China established military bases in collaboration with the United Arab Emirates and Oman, and brokered a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. While deploying naval warships to the Red Sea would seem a logical step for China, it appears their calculations are different.
US-China Tensions and Strategic Considerations
China’s absence is primarily rooted in the ongoing fragile relationship between the US and China. Despite some reduction in tensions, US-China ties remain delicate. The US has strengthened its presence in the Indo-Pacific, aligning with its allies against China’s assertiveness. Additionally, the US has firmly supported Israel, even in the face of the Gaza conflict. China, wary of being perceived as aligning with the US and Israel, has chosen not to participate in maritime security operations.
Houthi Assurance and the China-Iran Partnership
The Houthis have declared that they won’t attack Chinese and Russian ships unless linked with Israel. This stance, influenced by Iran’s support for Houthi rebels, is crucial. China and Iran have deepened their strategic partnership, sharing an anti-American worldview. With a long-term energy partnership and key roles in international organizations, the Houthis have refrained from targeting Chinese ships. This might explain China’s lack of naval intervention.
Diplomatic Channels and Red Sea Crisis
China has opted for diplomatic channels, refraining from naval intervention in the Red Sea crisis. Viewing the instability as linked to the war in Gaza, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has engaged in discussions with Egypt, Tunisia, and the Arab League. Wang emphasized upholding sea lane security in accordance with the law while respecting the sovereignty of countries along the Red Sea coast.
China’s Strategic Presence in the Western Indian Ocean
As China remains passive in the Red Sea crisis, attention turns to its strategic presence in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO). The crisis has brought the US back into the region, shaping emerging geopolitics. The limits of Chinese power are highlighted, as its influence over Iran and its cautious approach to the Red Sea crisis raise questions about the functionality of its Djibouti naval base and the capabilities of the Chinese navy.
Thirdly, China has opted for diplomatic channels so far and seems unlikely to resort to naval intervention in the Red Sea crisis. Beijing views the instability in the Red Sea as linked with the war in Gaza and, therefore, has called on ‘relevant parties’ to ‘avoid adding fuel to the fire’. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in his recent visit to Africa has engaged Egypt, Tunisia, and the Arab League to discuss the Israel-Palestine issue. Regarding the Red Sea crisis, Wang had said, “We should jointly uphold the security on the sea lanes of the Red Sea in accordance with the law and also respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries along the Red Sea coast, including Yemen.” However, Wang did not clarify what he meant by ‘we’ and how to uphold the security of the sea lanes.
While China remains passive in the ongoing Red Sea crisis, attention turns to Beijing’s strategic presence in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO). The war in Gaza and the crisis in the Red Sea have brought the US back into the region. The US’ role in the Middle East will shape the emerging regional geopolitics. The crisis underscores the limits of Chinese power. Although China’s international trade with Europe and Africa has suffered due to the Red Sea instability, it has not been able to put an end to the Houthi attacks. This is an indication that China’s role in the Middle East in general and, specifically, its leverage over Iran, is limited. Besides, China’s cautious approach to the Red Sea despite the naval base at Djibouti raises questions over the functions of the base and capabilities of the Chinese navy.
